Future Matters Reader

Holden Karfnosky — Success without dignity: a nearcasting story of avoiding catastrophe by luck

Mon, 20 Mar 2023 12:43:06 -0000

Success without dignity: a nearcasting story of avoiding catastrophe by luck, by Holden Karnofsky.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/75CtdFj79sZrGpGiX/success-without-dignity-a-nearcasting-story-of-avoiding

Note: Footnotes in the original article have been omitted.

Larks — A Windfall Clause for CEO could worsen AI race dynamics

Mon, 20 Mar 2023 11:42:03 -0000

In this post, Larks argues that the proposal to make AI firms promise to donate a large fraction of profits if they become extremely profitable will primarily benefitting the management of those firms and thereby give managers an incentive to move fast, aggravating race dynamics and in turn increasing existential risk.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ewroS7tsqhTsstJ44/a-windfall-clause-for-ceo-could-worsen-ai-race-dynamics

Otto Barten — Paper summary: The effectiveness of AI existential risk communication to the American and Dutch public

Mon, 20 Mar 2023 10:35:06 -0000

This is Otto Barten's summary of 'The effectiveness of AI existential risk communication to the American and Dutch public' by Alexia Georgiadis. In this paper Alexia measures changes in participants' awareness of AGI risks after consuming various media interventions.

Summary: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fqXLT7NHZGsLmjH4o/paper-summary-the-effectiveness-of-ai-existential-risk

Original paper: https://existentialriskobservatory.org/papers_and_reports/The_Effectiveness_of_AI_Existential_Risk_Communication_to_the_American_and_Dutch_Public.pdf

Note: Some tables in the summary have been omitted in this audio version.

Shulman & Thornley — How much should governments pay to prevent catastrophes? Longtermism's limited role

Mon, 20 Mar 2023 09:42:57 -0000

Carl Shulman & Elliott Thornley argue that the goal of longtermists should be to get governments to adopt global catastrophic risk policies based on standard cost-benefit analysis rather than arguments that stress the overwhelming importance of the future.

https://philpapers.org/archive/SHUHMS.pdf

Note: Tables, notes and references in the original article have been omitted.

Riley Harris — Summary of 'Are we living at the hinge of history?' by William MacAskill.

Tue, 14 Mar 2023 14:45:44 -0000

The Global Priorities Institute has published a new paper summary: 'Are we living at the hinge of history?' by William MacAskill.

https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/summary-summary-longtermist-institutional-reform/

Note: Footnotes and references in the original article have been omitted.

Riley Harris — Summary of 'Longtermist institutional reform' by Tyler M. John and William MacAskill

Tue, 14 Mar 2023 14:34:01 -0000

The Global Priorities Institute has published a new paper summary: 'Longtermist institutional reform' by Tyler John & William MacAskill.

https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/summary-summary-longtermist-institutional-reform/

Note: Footnotes and references in the original article have been omitted.

Hayden Wilkinson — Global priorities research: Why, how, and what have we learned?

Mon, 13 Mar 2023 16:42:56 -0000

The Global Priorities Institute has released Hayden Wilkinson's presentation on global priorities research. (The talk was given in mid-September last year but remained unlisted until now.)

https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/hayden-wilkinson-global-priorities-research-why-how-and-what-have-we-learned/

Piper — What should be kept off-limits in a virology lab?

Mon, 13 Mar 2023 16:18:54 -0000

New rules around gain-of-function research make progress in striking a balance between reward — and catastrophic risk.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/2/1/23580528/gain-of-function-virology-covid-monkeypox-catastrophic-risk-pandemic-lab-accident

Ezra Klein — This changes everything

Mon, 13 Mar 2023 10:03:25 -0000

"One of two things must happen. Humanity needs to accelerate its adaptation to these technologies or a collective, enforceable decision must be made to slow the development of these technologies. Even doing both may not be enough."

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/12/opinion/chatbots-artificial-intelligence-future-weirdness.html

Victoria Krakovna — Near-term motivation for AGI alignment

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 16:02:15 -0000

Victoria Krakovna makes the point that you don't have to be a longtermist to care about AI alignment.